Five Point Cafe – NFL Season Bets

On the morning of NFL’s opening day, I wanted to post some season long bets that I thought might be of interest. Naturally, these are for entertainment purposes only.

1. Win Totals. Its always fascinating to look at the win totals to gauge the public sentiment on a team before the season starts. Some win totals of interest:

• Carolina over 7 wins (+145). Carolina has the 7th easiest schedule in the league this year, as well as a power running game (DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart) behind two of the best offensive tackles in the league (Jordan Gross, Jeff Otah). As long as Matt Moore connects with Steve Smith enough to keep defenses honest, Carolina’s defense and running game should make John Fox’s team a darkhorse contender in NFC South.

• Seattle under 7 wins (-135). Simply put, Seattle is a mess. They return just 26 players from their five win season of a year ago, and already their offensive line coach chose to retire while their highly drafted starting left tackle (Russell Okung) held out of camp and is starting the season on the injury list. The only thing that might save the Seahawks is their schedule, although that’s only because they play in the NFC West, where all four teams rank in the top five of easiest schedules this year.

• Chicago Bears under 7.5 wins (-130). Only way I see Lovie Smith getting above .500 is if the Jets and Packers (weeks 16 & 17) have clinched playoff positions by the end of the year. Smith famously stated that his #1 goal as head coach when he was hired was to beat the Pack. It feels pre-destined that Lovie will beat the already clinched Packers in week 17 before he's handed his walking papers.
  

2. Division Champions.

• Packers to win NFC North (-125). With all the fantasy fervor surrounding Aaron Rodgers and Co., people forget that the Packer's defense was 1st in the NFL in yards per game against the run and 5th in yards against the pass. I suppose giving up 51 points in a playoff game will do that. The only realistic contender in the division is Minnesota, and all signs point to Rodgers getting Montezuma's revenge against old #4 this time around.

• San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West (-170). They have a killer defense anchored by Patrick Willis, a Mike Singletary clone, a solid running game behind Frank Gore, and two playmaking receivers in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. Given how bad their division is, they could pretty much back into a division title at this point.
  

• Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC North (+280). Everyone is high on the Ravens and the Bengals in what could be the toughest division in football this year. Don't count out the Steelers. They were 9-7 last year despite losing Troy Polomalu for all but five games, and they have the added advantage of an easier schedule due to their third place finish in the division. As a result, they matchup with the Titans/Raiders this year while the Ravens and Bengals will face Houston/Denver and Colts/Chargers, respectively. Those two games might be enough to offset the early suspension of Big Ben.
  

3. Defensive Rookie of the Year.

• Rolondo McClain, +1200. The easy play here would be to take Ndamukong Suh, but at +450, that doesn’t seem like a savvy play, particularly when you consider that nine out of the last ten winners have been linebackers, including the last seven in a row. McClain, the first linebacker selected in the draft, seems like a better bet at 12/1, particularly since Oakland’s defense, anchored by Nnamdi Asomugha and Richard Seymour, is already pretty good to begin with.

4. Longshots.

• Pittsburgh Steelers to win the SuperBowl (+2000). At this time last year, the Steelers were coming off their second SuperBowl win in four years and were one of the favorites to win again in 2009. Even with significant injuries, the Steelers would have been in the playoffs if it weren’t for losing five games when they held the lead in the fourth quarter. Everyone is focusing heavily on Big Ben’s early season suspension. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers franchise are as professional as they come, and they should be able to focus the player's efforts on the field after an offseason of turmoil. Also note that the Steelers finished a surprising second in the league in blue chip players according to Mike Lombardi’s rankings.

• Tennessee Titans to win the SuperBowl (+4000). Remember two seasons ago when the Titans went 13-3 and were the number one seed in the AFC? Most of that team is still intact, the key change being at quarterback where Jeff Fisher finally handed the reigns over to Vince Young, who finished out 8-2 last year. There’s a lot to like with this squad, and a Vince/Chris Johnson season where they mix in the run/option might be football's throwback answer to baseball's year of the pitcher.

• Aaron Rodgers to win MVP (+1200). Everyone loves the Packers this year. They are chock full of fantasy darlings and Aaron Rodgers is ready to take the next step as one of the NFL's next great quarterbacks. Coming off an 11 win season, the Packers look even stronger this year. At 12/1, Rodgers represents good value for an MVP caliber season.
  

5. NFL Opening Game.

• New Orleans Saints -5 over Minnesota Vikings. A defending SuperBowl champion has never lost the Thursday night opener since the NFL started the tradition in 2004. Everyone knows about the concerns surrounding the Vikings (Brett Farve’s ankle, Sidney Rice’s injury, Jared Allen’s haircut). On top of that, Drew Brees is planning to lead 70,000 crazed SuperDome fans going full tilt on the “Who Dat!” chant three times just before kickoff. Consider this a modern day voodoo chant against the Vikings. New Orleans knows how to put a party together, and you know Sean Payton, Drew Brees and company have been planning this bash all summer.