March 22, 2010

Fantasy Baseball - End Game Sleepers (AL)

Brackets are busted, spring is in the air, and fantasy baseball drafts are starting to take place all over the country. Here's a list of some lesser known baseball sleepers (I tried to come up with at least one player per team) that might be good end game pickups for your drafts.

AL East
Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard (RP). Bard's line last year at age 24: 11.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Papelbon's line at age 24: 9 K/9. 4.5 BB/9, 2.65 ERA, 1.471 WHIP. The next season Papelbon saved 35 games and a star was born. Papelbon's getting expensive ($9.35M in 2010) and it appears the Sox have the heir apparent in the bullpen already. Bard's strikeouts alone make him a worthwhile reliever in fantasy. If Papelbon gets shipped as part of a prospect package for a power hitter, Bard could be a gold mine.

New York Yankees: Nick Swisher (OF). Yankees are all well known commodities, so this isn't so much a sleeper pick as one that you should consider taking based on his surroundings. Swisher smacked 29 HRs with 80+ Runs and RBIs, despite hitting only .226 w/ 8 dingers at Yankee stadium last year. His .249/.371/.498 last year essentially matched the .262/.381/.455 he put up in 2007, his last year on the A's back when he was on everyone's fantasy lists.


Bodymore Orioles: Brian Matusz (SP). Matusz could be this year's Brett Anderson. He's a tall lefty that was the first pitcher taken in the 2008 draft. He blitzed through the minors last year, should break camp in the Orioles rotation and be a mainstay there for years to come. Take out one bad start from his 8 start majors debut last year, and his ERA falls to 3.86 with 37 Ks in 42 IP. In 4 spring training outings, he's put up a 2.51 ERA with 18Ks, 2BBs and a .63 WHIP in 14.1 IP.

Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Snider (OF). The glass half emptiers will say that Snider disappointed in his rookie season, hitting just .241/.328/.419 in his first go around the big leagues. The glass half fullers will point to Snider posting a 1.094 OPS in triple A as a 21 year old, smacking 14 HRs in just 204 ABs. Snider could make a big leap forward in his 2nd go around in the bigs at age 22, and 25+ HRs is not out of the question.

Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Rodriguez (2B). The youngster I wanted to point out here is Desmond Jennings, the heir apparent to Carl Crawford in left. While most people already know DJ's situation (in the minors, awaiting the inevitable Crawford to Yankees trade for a call-up), Rodriguez is quietly having the best spring in the majors, posting an absurd .425/.477/.975 with 6HRs in 40 ABs. Now a lock to break camp with the team, the former prospect that hit 29 HRs in the minors last year might be on the verge of a Ben Zobrist-like breakout.

AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Matt Thornton (RP). The past 2 seasons, Thornton has a K/9 over 10, a K:BB ratio of over 4, and a paltry 1.03 WHIP. Jenks' calf injury may be all Thornton needs to take the closer position and run with it. J.J. Putz is also lingering around and may vulture saves as well.

Detroit Tigers: Scott Sizemore (2B). Sizemore is the reason the Tigers let Polanco go, as the 25 year old is primed to take over as the starting second baseman this season. While he puts up solid power numbers for the position, he's been hampered in his recovery from a broken ankle and hasn't really shown an ability to hit for power during his spring training campaign. Another Tiger to watch is Ryan Raburn (1B, OF), an older utility hitter that blasted 16 HRs and a .892 OPS in 291 ABs last year.

Minnesota Twins: Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Anthony Slama (RP). A bit of a cop out, but this looks like the list for Joe Nathan's in-house replacement as closer this year. I'm going to remove Guerrier from the conversation because he's likely too valuable as a set-up man (leading AL in appearances past 2 seasons). Likewise, Mijares is too valuable as a situational lefty, and while Slama has been tearing up spring training he's a pitcher that relies on deception and his minor league numbers are a bit inflated given that he's entering the majors as a 26 year old. That leaves Jon Rauch as the leader in the clubhouse - he's sure got the height and the tattoos for the part, and while he may not strike enough hitters out to be an elite closer he may be serviceable if he can keep his BABIP in line with past seasons. The darkhorse of this group is Crain, the one-time 98 mph throwing golden child who has been limited by injury. Expect Rick Springfield to take Target Field by storm this summer if Crain can make it all the way back to close out games for the Twins.

Cleveland Indians: Michael Brantley (OF). Brantley had 46 SBs in the minors last season before a cup of coffee in the majors. With Matt LaPorta shifting to 1B, the former Brewers prospect who came over in the Sabathia deal could start to pay dividends for the Indians this season. He's had more walks than strikeouts every year in the minors, and is hitting .323 in spring training. He might start the year in the minors, but could be a great source for SBs when he gets called up.

Kansas City Royals: Move along, nothing to see here. Outside the names you already know, the Royals are the Miss Zarves of fantasy.

AL West
The The Angels Angels of Anaheim: Erick Aybar (SS). Having been anointed by Mike Soscia as Chone Figgins' replacement at the top of the lineup, Aybar should be good for a 100+ Runs and 15+ SB season, which certainly means something for a shortstop. His SB rates have been bad throughout his career, but he's got the wheels, putting up four 30+ SB campaigns in the minors. Entering his age 26 season, Aybar is a great sleeper at a position with little depth.

Seattle Mariners: Brandon League (RP). All the numbers suggest that the former St. Louis Crusader dominated in 2009. He posted 76 Ks versus 21 BB with less hits (72) than IP (74.2). Yet somehow, League still ended up with an ERA over 4.50. There's no hotter hand at the poker table than Jack Zduruencik right now, and I wouldn't want to bet against his move in trading Brandon Morrow for League. The move to Safeco should help, and League provides insurance should David Aardsma fail to repeat his breakout performance.

Texas Rangers: Colby Lewis (SP). A former hard-throwing Rangers prospect turned flame-out, Lewis reinvented himself the last two years leading the Japan leagues in strikeouts while showcasing full season durability for the first time. He could rack up wins and strikeouts on a good Rangers team, and while his ERA might take a hit in that ballpark, he's a deep sleeper with a good defense behind him and a good pitching coach (Mike Maddux) in front of him. He could repeat what Scott Feldman did last year.

Oakland Unathletics: Justin Duchscherer (SP). Duchscherer lost all of 2009 first to an elbow injury, then to clinical depression. He finally made his spring debut, throwing a successful 4 innings. While a return to his elite 2008 level seems unlikely (a .235 BABIP hardly seems repeatable), at least he's done it before and it's hard to root against him doing it again.

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