March 22, 2010

Fantasy Baseball - End Game Sleepers (NL)

Continuing with our list of fantasy baseball sleepers, this time with the National League.

NL East
New York Ponzi Schemes: Fernando Martinez (OF). The oft-hyped Martinez is still just 21 years old, but injuries have limited him to less than 300 ABs in 3 of his 4 professional seasons. He was rushed to the majors last year, and produced a paltry .176 average in 1oo ABs before going down for the count with a knee injury. He's been pounding the ball in spring training, pacing the Mets in HRs and RBIs while posting a 1.200+ OPS. In an outfield crowded with injured (Carlos Beltran), overpaid (Gary Matthews, Jr., Jeff Francoeur), and unproductive (Angel Pagan) veterans, F-Mart could provide the young production Minaya & Manuel will need to help keep their jobs.

Florida Marlins: Mike Stanton (OF). After hitting an eye popping 39 HRs in single A at age 18, Stanton scuffled a bit in Double A last year, hitting just .231/.311/.455 in 341 ABs. He's torn up spring training thus far, cracking 3 HRs in just 21 ABs. While he's unlikely to break with the club (both for seasoning and monetary purposes), the 20 year old who was signed by USC as a tight end out of high school has the type of power that could make a large impact in the 2nd half of the year. There's a reason Peter Gammons once said, "I have seen the future, and he is Mike Stanton." Think Chris Davis circa 2008.

Flip-flip-flipadelphia Phillies: Placido Polanco (2B, 3B). Like the Red Sox and Yankees, the Phillies have had enough recent success that most of their players are a known quantity from a fantasy perspective. Polanco had a down year in 2009, and he's essentially a singles hitting infielder at this point, but he should still put up 90+ runs and hit .290 batting second for the Phillies. The move to the national league and playing 3rd should help. It's interesting that Polanco once blocked Chase Utley at 2nd for the Phillies, and is now rejoining the squad with Utley bonafide star.

Atlanta Braves: Troy Glaus (1B, 3B). Glaus is amazingly still just 33 years old, and might have another season or two of mashing in him yet. While 2009 was a lost year for him, he did put up a .270/.373/.483 line as recently as 2008 with 27 HRs and 99RBIs that season. The move to first should help, and hitting in what should be a contending lineup surrounded by the likes of Chipper Jones and Brian McCann should set up for some nice RBI opportunities. The added positional flexibility at 3B doesn't hurt, and Glaus has hit well in spring training, posting a 1.040 OPS in 27ABs. The last time he hit this well in spring? 2008.

Washington Strasburgs: Ian Desmond (SS). For now, Desmond appears to be blocked by Christian Guzman, an aging overpaid veteran coming off a shoulder injury. The good news for Nats fans is that Guzman is in the last year of his contract, and the 24 year old Desmond has been tearing it up in spring training. Though he's no super prospect, Desmond did steal 22 bases across 3 levels last year, and performed well in his 89 AB cup of coffee last year in the majors. The petals feel like they are starting to bloom in Nationalsville, and it may not be too long before the Nats brass turns to the youngster and dumps Guzman to the land of Elijah.

NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro (SS). As every self-flaggelating Cubs fan knows, the latest franchise savior to be isn't famous simply for being a letter away from sharing names with two communist dictators. Castro has shown an ability to hit for average and stole 28 bases across two levels in the minors last year. With the win now mentality inherent with new ownership, Lou Pinella's contract year, and Jim Hendry's employment, Castro is likely to find himself in the majors at some point, shifting Ryan Theriot over the second and the incumbent Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot platoon to the garbage dump. Castro's .423/.444/.692 line in 26 spring training ABs only increases the hype on the 20 year old.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez (3B). A hot streak in the last month of the season (.323, 5Hrs) is all that kept Andy LaRoche's season respectable. Now 26, the one time prospect should be feeling the heat from Alvarez, the 2nd overall pick in the '08 draft who has posted a .296/.345/.519 line in spring training (compare that to LaRoche's .214/.267/.357 and you get the picture). Alvarez projects to be a first baseman down the line, but either way, he's going to be part of many Pirates advertisements this decade along with Andrew McCutchen as the faces of the franchise.

Cincinnati Reds: Drew Stubbs (OF). Now 25, the 8th pick of the 2006 draft made his major league debut last season while playing great defense in center. His calling card are steals, he had 56 of them last season, though just 10 in of those came in the majors. Bruce is likely to get first crack at leadoff this year, giving him every opportunity to rack up the steals at the top of the lineup. Hitting in Great American Ballpark doesn't hurt (he posted a .337/.380/.616 line at home compared to .202/.272/.277 on the road). While he strikes out too much to be an elite burner, his defense should keep him in games and adding up steals for a cheap price.

St. Louis Cardinals: Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia (RP). The odds are short that Ryan Franklin will be able to finish another season as the Cards' closer. Now 37, most Cards fans realize they will need another hurler to step up and take over the end game role for what should be a championship caliber team. Remember, Motte and his favorable K rates had first crack last year before blowing his chance on opening day and finding himself in LaRussa's doghouse. McClellan is likely best suited to his role as set-up man. Garcia is the dark horse here, a former highly touted starter, the lefty is still just 23 years old and has been used out of the pen in spring training, posting a tasty 1.42 ERA with a 13K/5BB ratio in 12.2 IP. Monitor this situation as Franklin's goatee loses its lucky charms.

Milwaukee Brewskis: Carlos Gomez (OF). The Brewers did well to replace Mike Cameron in center with Gomez, who rates as an excellent defensive centerfielder. We all know Gomez has wheels, but his achilles heal has always been his low OBP - he's never been able to post one above .300 in the majors. Perhaps the move to the NL will help Gomez enough to keep him in the lineup, though there's a reason Jim Edmonds is likely to make the team as a backup. Michael Bourn was able to steal 41 bases with a sub .300 OBP in 2008 before his 61 steal campaign last season (the improved .354 OBP sure helped). Gomez is three years younger than Bourn, and has 9 steals in the spring (versus zero caught stealing), so there's hope. Hitting in front of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder should help as well.

Houston Astros: Brett Myers (SP). Myers is a reclamation project after being discarded by the Phillies. Though his ERA and K/9 have been trending downward, he is currently penciled in as the Astros' third starter. Still just 29 and two years removed from a stint as closer, Myers could have a bounce back year pitching in the NL Central. Matt Lindstrom (RP) is another reclamation pitcher that could take over the closer spot from an injured Brandon Lyon and run with it.

NL West
Arizona Diamondbags: Kelly Johnson (2B). After two seasons posting an OPS close to .800, Johnson tanked last year in losing his starting job in Atlanta. He's moved to a hitter friendly park in Arizona on a one year deal and seems like a prime bounce back candidate. Still just 28, Johnson should be able to get his average back to the high .280s and his OPS to .800. He could be a good end game gamble at second given the positional scarcity.

Colorado Rockies: Eric Young, Jr. (2B). On the other end of the second base spectrum is Eric Young, Jr., who finally appears ready to take over the keystone position from Clint Barmes, who is on a one year deal and is starting to get old (31) and expensive ($3.23M in 2010) for a hitter with a sub .300 OBP. The 25 year old Young has blazing speed, having stolen an average of 66 bases in his 4 minor league seasons. Young scuffled early on in spring training, but a late tear has him in competition for the job.

Los Angeles Divorcees: Barring injury, I actually don't see any sleeper value on the Dodgers. Sure, Broxton could blow a tire (or two), Padilla could reverse his career trend and continue to pitch well in the NL, or DeWitt could catch fire at second, but I just don't see it. Sometimes you have to move forward to go backwards. Better press on.

San Francisco Pandas: Dan Runzler (RP). Runzler has been a revelation, going from a power reliever with control problems to just a power reliever. He blitzed his competition last year, posting 82Ks against just 22BB in 46.1 IP across three levels, including a successful 11 appearances in the majors. He's continued his roll in spring training, striking out 11 in 5.2 IP, giving Giants fans something to look forward to at the end of games other than Brian Wilson's X marks the save.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson (RP). Simply put, Gregerson is the likely next closer for the Padres once Heath Bell gets dealt. Given Bell's salary ($4M on a one year deal), a trade is highly likely as he's about to get real expensive. Pitching in Petco is like surfing at lower trestles, paradise. In his first major league season, Gregerson posted a 3.24 ERA with 93Ks in 75IP on a stellar 3:1 K:BB ratio. Doing this despite a less than favorable .314 BABIP portends good things for the future.

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